Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 02 January, 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 02  TX/OK/AR: Cold northern air continues to be established over the southern plains with high temperatures on Wednesday only reaching into the lower 40 s and high 30 s.  Northern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma continue to see a chance of snow flurries this morning moving to the east and diminishing through the day.  During the afternoon and evening clearing will allow temperatures to fall to their lowest levels seen this winter.  Low temperatures to the south will be in the lower 20 s to upper teens whereas in Oklahoma and Ozark Mountains they will border on the single digits.  Winds will be moderate during the day falling to light overnight and out of the north to northwest, region wide.  On Thursday, high pressure will begin to build.  A regional warming will occur ahead of a wet weather system arriving on Friday.  In Texas high temperatures will be in the low 50 s across the region.  In Oklahoma high temperatures will be five degrees cooler.   Low s will see the greatest warming with Thursday night temperatures in the mid 30 s to the south and lower 30 s north.  Winds will switch to the south to southwest and be moderate to light on a north to south gradient.          

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains travel south to southeast through Arkansas into Mississippi.  Very cold temperatures will prevail in the Ozark Mountains with the high s today only in the 20 s and mid 30 s by tomorrow.  Low temperatures will be near the single digits tonight and lower 20 s Thursday evening.  Winds will be moderate from the north to northwest calming overnight then switch to a southerly direction on Thursday.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow with very low temperatures.  Travel characteristics of the trajectories remain unsuitable for entrainment and travel. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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