University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 03 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Thursday, January 03 TX/OK/AR: High pressure associates with the cold northern air that has been centered over the southern plains will begin to move east as the winter storm on the east coast moves out. This will return southerly winds to the area and result in a general warming of high temperatures. High temperature readings throughout the southern plains will be in the low 50 s to upper 40 s today with sunny conditions. To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures will reach the mid 40 s but the Ozark Mountain region will remain around freezing. The shift in winds will increase to moderate wind strengths to the north but stay calm to the south. As the afternoon progresses the southerly winds will bring increasing moisture causing clouds to build across the southern area towards the evening. Low temperatures on Thursday will return to the mid 30 s to the south, mid 20 s in Oklahoma and back to the teens in the Ozark Mountains. On Friday, conditions will continue to warm with high temperatures again reaching the low 50 s but low temperatures will stay in the mid 40 s. Southerly winds will continue to bring in moisture and cloudy conditions will prevail across the Edwards Plateau and hill country. Clouds will build across northern Texas and Oklahoma with a significant chance of rain occurring in the Dallas area and southern Oklahoma. Winds will continue out of the south at moderate strengths.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains travel to the northeast across Missouri into Illinois and Indiana. Cold temperatures remain in the Ozark Mountains with the high s today only in low 30 s warming to the mid 40 s by Friday. Winds shift to the south and southwest and become light to moderate. Increasing humidity results in a significant chance of precipitation by Friday with upwards of an inch of snow possible by Friday night
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow with low temperatures and increasing humidity. Travel characteristics of the trajectories remain unsuitable for entrainment and travel.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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