University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 04 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Friday, January 04 TX/OK/AR: Precipitation will occur over the area for the next two days as an upper level low pressure heads east out of the Rocky Mountains towards the Southeastern U.S. Today , high pressure over eastern Texas and Louisiana will continue to move east creating moderate southerly winds ahead of the low moving in from the west. Early conditions will be relatively dry but moisture will begin to build and mixed clouds and sun will give way to mostly cloudy conditions. Regional wind fields will be moderate and from the south, varying to the southeast or southwest depending upon location. Areas on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and to the north have significant chances of rain forecast for later this afternoon and evening and continuing on Saturday. High temperatures to the south in central Texas will be in the low 50 s and upper 40 s throughout Oklahoma and the lower 40 s in the Ozark Mountains. Low temperatures will be in the 40 s to the south, mid 30 s in Oklahoma and lower 30 s in the Ozark Mountains. Precipitation is forecast throughout the area as rain, but mixed conditions and some snow may occur from Tulsa to the Northeast into the Ozark Mountain area depending upon the timing and local temperature conditions. Rainy conditions will occur throughout eastern areas of the southern plains on Saturday. Temperatures remain stable but wind strength increases from moderate to strong across the area. Clearing will begin in the afternoon, initially in the west and south, with partly cloudy conditions maintained in eastern Texas and Oklahoma going into Sunday.
Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Ozark Mountains travel to the northeast across Missouri into Illinois and Indiana. Cold temperatures remain in the Ozark Mountains with the high s today only in low 40 s returning to the upper 30 s by Saturday. Winds will be strong from the south and southwest today and become light to moderate from the north to northwest on Saturday. Humidity will increase this afternoon with a significant chance of precipitation this evening into Saturday. The type of precipitation will depend upon local temperatures, if snow accumulations of less than one inch are expected
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today and tomorrow with low temperatures, increasing humidity, and significant chances for precipitation .
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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