University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 07 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Monday, January 07 TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions from Sunday will continue on Monday and Tuesday with a significant warming trend over the next couple of days. High pressure begins to build over the region starting on Monday and continues through the week. Winds will be moderate from the north during the day on Monday and then shift to the south over night but be calm. To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, winds will be from the west switching to the southwest overnight. High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach the upper 50 s on Monday and into the mid to upper 60 s on Tuesday. Lows overnight on Monday will be in the mid 30 s warming to the mid 40 s on Tuesday. To the north temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler all around with highs on Monday in the upper 40 s and upper 50 s to low 60 s on Tuesday. Low temperatures will be near or below freezing Monday night and in the lower 40 s to upper 30 s on Tuesday night. Winds in this region will remain moderate to light out of the southwest on Tuesday. Throughout the entire region sunny skies will stay clear on Monday night and only northern Oklahoma will see partly cloudy conditions on Tuesday but then clear towards the evening.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains initially move to the east/southeast but shift to the northeast traveling over the St. Louis area. High pressure begins to build to the west over the southern plains and will result in an overall warming of the area over the next few days. However, cold air remain in the Ozark Mountain region on Monday with high temperatures only in the upper 30 s and lows continueing in the 20 s. Light to moderate winds will initially be out of the north to northwest but will calm and switch to a southerly flow overnight. Sunny skies will occur both today and tomorrow. On Tuesday a significant warming will occur with high temperatures in the mid-50 s and lows around 40. .
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release today with low temperatures. However, sunny skies and a significant warming trend along with decreased humidity will result in a significant chance for release during the next few days.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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