Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 08 January, 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 08  TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern plains as high pressure builds over the area.  Temperatures will continue to warm today and tomorrow with highs in the Texas region reaching the upper 60 s to low 70 s today and into the low to mid 70 s tomorrow.  The warming continues north today with high temperatures close to 70 in Oklahoma and into the 60 s in the Ozark Mountain region.  Lows throughout the region tonight will be in the 40 s.  On Wednesday the southern low temperatures will be in the lower 50 s to upper 40 s and 5 to 7 degrees cooler to the north.  Winds on both days will be from the south to southwest across the region and be moderate on Wednesday gaining strength on Thursday as a front begins to cross the area.  Late Wednesday, skies will become partly cloudy across the region ahead of a front moving through on Thursday.  Model predictions show cloudiness but little support for precipitation.  However, a cut-off low developing to the west may result in significant precipitation over the weekend and into the beginning of next week.   

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast over the St. Louis area. The warming evident in the southern plains will also affect the region with high temperatures pushing 60 degrees today and into the mid 60 s tomorrow.  Drier conditions and moderate winds from the southwest will occur today and tomorrow.  On Wednesday warmer conditions and stronger winds will prevail. 

 Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Warming and drying conditions in the Ozark Mountain area make for favorable conditions for pollen release today and especially tomorrow.  However, temperatures may still remain somewhat cool today for significant, very favorable, releases of pollen from the trees.  The wind characteristics show some buoyancy suggesting that released pollen may become entrained in the air flow and travel downstream.  If so moderate influxes of pollen may occur into the St. Louis area. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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