University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 09 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Wednesday, January 09 TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern plains as high pressure remains over the area today. Temperatures will be warm today but significant cooling will occur tonight and tomorrow as a cold front pushes south from Nebraska across the area. High temperatures in Texas will be in the upper 70 s across the eastern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and reach the low 80 s to the west. Low temperatures will cool to the upper 40 s. To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark region high temperatures will reach the upper 60 s to low 70 s with slightly cooler conditions northward and in the Ozark Mountain area. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40 s. The cold front will push across the area from north to south beginning tonight. Southerly winds will begin to reverse as it passes. This reversal will occur around midnight in northern Oklahoma, early morning in southern Oklahoma and by noon on Thursday in central Texas. Cloudy conditions and increasing humidity will accompany the passage of the cold front, but weather models indicate little support for precipitation accompanying the weather front as it passes. However a slight chance of showers or sprinkles does exist, especially over the Ozark Mountain region. Both high and low temperatures on Thursday will drop 15 to 20 degrees as the front passes.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast, with the surface winds turning south just ahead of the St. Louis area. Warm conditions will occur in the Ozark Mountains with high temperatures close to 70 degrees today. A cold front will push through the region tonight bringing increased humidity and a 20 to 30% chance of showers and rain on Thursday. Temperatures will decrease by more than 20 degrees compared to Wednesday. Trajectory characteristics today are good for entrainment and travel.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today. Warming and drying conditions in the Ozark Mountain area make for very favorable conditions for pollen release today. Areas where Juniperus ashei grows should see significant concentrations in the atmosphere. Entrainment and travel downwind from these areas also looks probable affecting areas to the northeast including the St. Louis area. Rising air characteristics will take surface winds from the pollinating areas and mix them with upper elevation winds that continue to the northeast after the surface winds are turned southward. Therefore some deposition in the St. Louis area is predicted. Cold conditions and the possibility of precipitation on Thursday will limit pollen release, entrainment, and travel.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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