University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 10 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Thursday, January 10 TX/OK/AR: Cloudy conditions will prevail over the southern plains today from Oklahoma into Texas. A cold front continues to push southward dropping temperatures from the highs of yesterday and moisture at the mid-levels will be brought into the region by a cut-off low pressure moving across northern Mexico. In Texas, high temperatures will be generally 10 degrees cooler with highs in the 60 s to the north and just reaching into the 70 s in the south. Winds will be moderate to strong and from the north throughout the region. In Oklahoma temperatures will reach the upper 50 s with lows around freezing to the north and 5 degrees cooler near the Texas border. Very windy conditions are forecast for the Oklahoma City area with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph out of the north. The Ozark Mountain region will have a 40% chance of showers today and this evening with temperatures in the low 50 s and lows around freezing. Friday will continue the trend with continued cooling and mixed cloudy sky conditions. High temperatures will remain in the 50 s throughout the Texas and Oklahoma region with lows in the upper 30 s. The Ozark Mountains will only reach the upper 40 s with low temperatures below freezing as the skies clear to the east during the evening. Winds throughout the region remain moderate and from the north
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south, across Arkansas into eastern Texas. Cool conditions will occur in the Ozark Mountains with high temperatures in the 50 s today cooling to the 40 s tomorrow. Increasing humidity and a 40% chance of showers will occur along the southern edge of the Ozark Mountains and to the south this afternoon and tonight. Trajectory characteristics travel close to the ground and show little lift as the winds move south, conditions not good for entrainment and travel.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cooler and moist conditions will prevail today and tomorrow throughout the area. The characteristics of the winds are not particularly good for entrainment and travel. Therefore little release and deposition downwind is expected.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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