University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 11 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Friday, January 11 TX/OK/AR: Cloudy conditions will prevail over the southern half of the southern plains today. Low and mid-level moisture will be pushed into the Texas area from a cut-off low pressure system in northern Mexico. Rain will develop south in northern Mexico and eventually along the Gulf Coast but the models indicate that there is little support for precipitation to the north. Winds will remain moderate to light throughout the area from the north. High temperatures will remain in the mid 50 s today with lows in the upper 30 s to 40 s. The cloudy conditions will clear tomorrow from the north and west resulting in a 5 to 7 degree warming across the region and a similar range of low temperatures Saturday night. To the north in Oklahoma, High temperatures today will be in the mid to low 50 s with lows around freezing. A similar warming will occur tomorrow with sunny conditions and clear nights. The Ozark Mountain region will remain clear and colder with high temperatures in the 40 s and lows below freezing on both days. Winds for the Oklahoma and Ozark Mountain area will be out of the north to northwest and moderate to light for the next two days.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east, across southern Missouri. Cool conditions will occur in the Ozark Mountains with high temperatures striving to reach 50 today and tomorrow. Skies will be sunny and clear with decreasing humidity. Trajectory characteristics show some lift from the area and then travel close to the ground towards the east.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cooler temperatures and a drying of moist conditions will prevail today with sunny and clear skies both days. The trajectory characteristics are not particularly good for entrainment and travel. Therefore if pollen is released it should stay close to the population in the Ozark Mountain region, with little release and deposition downwind.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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