University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 12 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Saturday, January 12 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build over the southern plains today and most of tomorrow bringing sunny clear skies both days to Texas but partly cloudy conditions will occur to the north with some clearing overnight. High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the lower 60 s to the south and mid to upper 50 s in Oklahoma. The Ozark Mountain will barely reach the 50 degree mark today and tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the 30 s throughout the region with conditions in the 20s in the Ozark Mountain area. Winds will be from the north region wide on Saturday but over Saturday night a strong trough will move through the area switching the winds to the south/southwest. This switch will occur from the west to east as the trough moves over the region and cause wind speeds to climb from moderate to strong in the north and west. This system carries little moisture with it so humidity levels will remain low.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the southeast, across Arkansas then turn to the north following the Mississippi River valley. Cool conditions will occur in the Ozark Mountains with high temperatures striving to reach low to mid 50 today and tomorrow. Skies will be sunny and clear with decreasing humidity. Trajectory characteristics show no lift in the atmosphere from the area along its entire travel path on Saturday but substantial lift on Sunday.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low/Moderate threat *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today. Cool temperatures are forecast but sunny, clear skies and low humidity will prevail both days. If the low temperatures can be overcome, low humidity and sunny conditions may lead to limited pollen release. However the trajectory characteristics are poor for entrainment and travel today but better on Sunday. Therefore if pollen is released it should stay close to the population in the Ozark Mountain region, with little deposition downwind for Saturday. Any pollen released on Sunday has the potential for movement northeast over Missouri and St. Louis.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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