University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 14 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Monday, January 14 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build over the southern plains today and tonight bringing sunny clear skies with seasonal temperatures throughout. Winds will generally be from the north to northwest and moderate today but switching to the south/southwest as the high pressure begins to move to the east/northeast tomorrow. High temperatures today will be in the mid 60 s across Texas and in mid to upper 50 s in Oklahoma. The Ozark Mountain area will only reach the upper 40 s today. The clear skies and calming winds overnight will result in low temperatures hovering around the freezing mark across Texas. To the north temperatures will be in the mid to lower 20 s in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. Weather conditions on Tuesday will remain sunny but increasing clouds will result in partly cloudy skies on Tuesday night. High temperatures will be very similar to those on Monday. Increased wind strength on Tuesday will result in a 10 degree warming of overnight lows as the atmosphere remains mixed and partly cloudy conditions prevail over the region.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the southeast, across Arkansas, Tennessee and into Mississippi. Cool conditions will occur in the Ozark Mountains with high temperatures in the upper 40 s today and tomorrow. Skies will be sunny and clear with low humidity but will become partly cloudy tomorrow night. Trajectory characteristics show no lift in the atmosphere from the area along its entire travel path.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate threat today *** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Cool temperatures but sunny, clear skies and low humidity will prevail . The temperatures will just reach the favorable range in the area; however, poor conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel. Any pollen that is released it should stay close to the population in the Ozark Mountain region, with little release and deposition downwind.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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