University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 15 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Tuesday, January 15 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will move to the east over Arkansas today as low pressure builds over eastern New Mexico. This combination will result in a south to southwesterly flow into the southern plains resulting in seasonal temperatures and sunny skies today. Increased clouds tonight will build across the northern area with mostly cloudy and/or mixed conditions on Wednesday and partly cloudy conditions Wednesday night. Today, high temperatures across Texas will be in the mid to upper 60 s with lows in the mid 40 s overnight. On Wednesday high temperatures will rise by 5 to 7 degrees into the mid 70 s as will low temperatures to the east. On the western side of the Plateau, temperatures will fall off by 5 to 7 degrees Wednesday night. To the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark region high temperatures today will be in the upper 50 s to low 60 s in Oklahoma and upper 40 s in the Ozark Mountain region today and tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the 40 s in Oklahoma and near freezing in the Ozark Mountains today falling by 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow night. Winds throughout the region will be from the south to southeast switching to the south to southwest overnight and into tomorrow. Moderate to strong winds will occur to the north around Oklahoma City and Tulsa
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the north/northwest, across Kansas, then turn and travel straight south over eastern Oklahoma. Cool conditions will occur in the Ozark Mountains with high temperatures in the upper 40 s today and tomorrow. Skies will be sunny today but partly cloudy by this afternoon and evening. Humidity will increase throughout the day with mostly cloudy conditions tomorrow and a 40% chance of rain tomorrow. Trajectory characteristics show little lift in the atmosphere to begin with but some buoyancy during travel.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate threat today *** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Cool temperatures but sunny, clear skies and low humidity will prevail early today but increasing humidity and a chance of rain on Wednesday clouds the forecast. The low temperatures limit pollen release from the area, in addition poor conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel initially. Although the trajectories cross back over eastern Oklahoma bringing the chance of pollen deposition, increasing humidity and the chance of rain should clear the skies of pollen before it arrives.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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