University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 16 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Wednesday, January 16 TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated today by westerly flow and a week cold front that will drop over the area tonight. Across Texas temperatures will be warm with highs reaching the low 70 s to upper 60 s and low temperatures being in the 40 s or warmer along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the south to southwest and moderate calming overnight. Mid and upper level moisture will result in mixed sky conditions and building to partly cloudy tonight. To the north southerly winds will warm conditions early but a cold front will pass over Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be close to 60 to the south and in the mid 50s north and east, including the Ozark Mountain areas. Winds will initially be from the south/southwest but will switch to the north/northeast as the cold front passes. On Thursday, the weak cold front will shift the winds further south with the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau seeing north to northeasterly wind patterns. The winds will remain light. High temperatures will drop 5 to 7 degrees and sky conditions will remain mixed to partly cloudy across the area as mid to high level moisture continues to flow in from the west. Instability in the atmosphere is forecast for the Dallas area and to the west with a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and into the evening.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east and south for the low level trajectory. The upper level trajectories continue to move due east across southern Missouri. Temperatures will be cool today with highs just reaching the 50 s but then colder conditions will occur tomorrow with high temperatures barely getting into the 40 s. Winds will be moderate, initially from the southwest but changes to the north and northeast with the movement across the area of the cold front. Skies will be mostly cloudy today, partly cloudy tonight then mixed on Thursday. Humidity will increase and showers will develop on Thursday to the south of the area. Trajectory characteristics show little lift in the atmosphere at the lowest level and moderate lift at the upper levels.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cool temperatures, cloudy skies and increasing humidity will prevail today. The low temperatures should limit pollen release from the area, in addition poor conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel at the surface and an increasing chance of rain along the trajectories pathway does not bode well for entrainment or travel.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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