University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 16 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Wednesday, January 17 TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated today by upper elevation westerly flow and the position of a cold front that will center across southern Texas. Across the southern plains temperatures will remain seasonal with highs reaching the upper 60 s to low 70 s on the western edge of the Edwards Plateau with mixed clouds and sun becoming partly cloudy overnight. To the northeast temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler as skies will be mostly cloudy during the day. Low temperatures will be in the 30 s to the northwest grading to the low 50 s along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Winds will remain very light throughout today and tonight. Wind direction to the north will be from the north and south of the stalled cold front from the south to southwest. Mid-level moisture down to the surface will result in higher humidity than has occurred over the past week. On Thursday, Temperatures will cool 5 to 7 degrees with the cold front moving slightly southward. Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern as Wednesday night. Winds across the region will increase to moderate levels and be from the north to northeast except on the western side of the plateau where they will come from the southeast. To the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low 40 s to upper 30 s with lows in the twenties and teens. Similar levels will be reached on Thursday as well. Winds will be from the north to northeast across the area and mostly cloudy conditions will prevail with an increasing chance of rain on Thursday night.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the west/southwest over central and southern Oklahoma. The trajectories show characteristics of low-level movement with little buoyancy in the atmosphere along the pathway. In the Ozark Mountains, temperatures today and tomorrow will be cold, with highs in the upper 30 s to low 40 s and low temperatures in the teens and twenties. Skies will be cloudy and winds will be calm and from the northeast on both days. Humidity is on the rise and showers will develop on Thursday to the south of the area. Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cold temperatures, cloudy skies and increasing humidity will prevail today. The low temperatures should limit pollen release from the area; in addition poor conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel at the surface and an increasing chance of rain along the trajectories pathway does not bode well for entrainment or travel.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to ForecastingHome Page