University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 18 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Friday, January 18 TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated today and tomorrow by the movement of an upper level weather system. High pressure over the central plains will come into contact with a fast moving weather front that passes over the region tonight and tomorrow. High temperatures throughout the southern areas will remain seasonal but cooler than the past week with most places reaching the 60 s today and warming by 5 to 7 degrees tomorrow. Lows tonight will also be warm and in the mid to upper 40 s. Cooler conditions will occur tomorrow night as the skies clear late. As the weather system moves across the northern areas precipitation will develop over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. High temperatures on both days will barely reach the 40 s in Oklahoma and be 5 degrees cooler in the Ozark Mountain region. Cloudy skies today will increase and precipitiation in the form of freezing rain and/or snow will occur overnight and into tomorrow morning. Winds across the entire area will be light to moderate except for the passage of the weather system out of the west overnight when the western portion of Texas and central Oklahoma wind speeds will be strong at 20 to 25 miles per hour. On Saturday conditions will calm with northerly winds and temperatures in the same range as Friday. Skies will begin to clear towards the afternoon and evening.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains initially move to the northwest over southeastern Kansas then are turned to the southeast and travel across northeastern Oklahoma and back into Arkansas. The trajectories show characteristics of low-level movement with initial buoyancy in the atmosphere but sinking air characteristics as the flow begins its pathway southeasterly. In the Ozark Mountains, temperatures today and tomorrow will be cold, with highs in the upper 30 s to low 40 s and low temperatures in the twenties. Skies will be cloudy today with snow forecast overnight and tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate on both days.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cold temperatures, cloudy skies, increasing humidity and snow will prevail today and tomorrow. The low temperatures should limit pollen release from the area, in addition poor conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel at the surface and an increasing chance of precipitation along the trajectories pathway does not bode well for entrainment or travel.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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