University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 19 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Saturday, January 19 TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains is on the tail end of the movement of an upper level weather system. Precipitation will occur across eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas this morning shifting towards the east as the day progresses. High pressure will establish over the Rocky Mountains resulting in moderate northerly winds throughout the region. Skies will be partly cloudy but clearing towards the evening. Tonight and tomorrow a high pressure will build over the Texas area swinging the winds to the south to southeast and bringing dryer warmer air into the region for Sunday. High temperatures across Texas will barely get to 60 degrees today with most areas firmly entrenched in the 50 s. Lows will be in the low 30 s to just below freezing. To the north high temperatures will be in the 40 s in Oklahoma and 30 s across the Ozark Mountains. Lows will be below freezing. On Sunday, conditions continue to warm across the region as dryer air moves across. A trough develops over the panhandle and moves through the area but with little precipitation associated with it. High temperatures in the Texas region will warm by 5 to 7 degrees into the mid to upper 60 s but low temperatures will remain in the lower 30 s as the skies begin to clear. A similar warming will occur in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region but highs will only reach the mid 50 s to mid 40 s. Low temperatures will be in the low 30 s to mid 20 s.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains initially move to the south then turn and flow back to the north into central Missouri. The trajectories show characteristics of low-level movement with no initial buoyancy in the atmosphere. In the Ozark Mountains, temperatures today and tomorrow will be cold, with highs in the upper 30 and low temperatures in the low twenties. Skies will be cloudy today but clear tonight. Winds will be light to moderate initially from the north shifting to the south in the afternoon. Tomorrow temperatures rebound by 7 to 10 degrees but highs will only be in the 40 s with low temperatures in the mid 20 s. Winds will be out of the south to southwest and moderate to strong. The skies should remain clear of pollen both today and tomorrow.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Low threat tomorrow *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Cold temperatures, high levels of humidity and partly cloudy skies will prevail today. Some clearing and drying will occur tonight and tomorrow but partly cloudy skies will return in the morning. The low temperatures should limit pollen release from the area, in addition poor conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel at the surface for both days.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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