University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 21 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Monday, January 21 TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by high pressure building over the Texas region today and the movement of a trough out of the west on Tuesday. Warm temperatures will occur across the region with highs in Texas in the mid to upper 60 s and near 60 in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. Lows will be in the mid 40 s south and upper 30 s to the north. Sunny to mostly sunny skies will prevail today and into this evening turning partly cloudy across the region late tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds will be from the south to southeast along the eastern portions of the Edwards Plateau and to the south to southwest to the west and north. Moderate to light winds will occur to the south and moderate winds to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. On Tuesday, the high pressure will move to the east as the trough developing to the west moves into the area. Overcast, cloudy to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region turning to mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Sprinkles may occur along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and a 70% chance of precipitation is forecast for the Dallas area. Winds across the region will be from the southwest and moderate to strong., especially in Oklahoma where winds from 20 to 30 mph are forecast for both Oklahoma City and Tulsa. Temperatures, however, will remain warm and near 70 across Texas and in the lower 60 s to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the north across central Missouri into the upper mid-west and Great Lakes region. The trajectories show characteristics of low-level movement with no initial buoyancy in the atmosphere. In the Ozark Mountains, temperatures today and tomorrow will warm, with highs near 60 today and into the low 60 s tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the mid to low 30 s tonight but near 50 tomorrow. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny and clear today and tonight. Sunny conditions will occur tomorrow but with increasing clouds and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow afternoon into evening. Winds will be out of the south to southwest and moderate on Monday increasing to strong throughout Tuesday. The trajectories show sinking air movement away from the site indicating imperfect conditions for entrainment and travel.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today. Warm temperatures, relatively dry atmosphere and sunny skies will produce conditions that are very favorable for pollen release today and tomorrow morning. Increasing clouds and humidity tomorrow afternoon and evening should reduce the chance of pollen release. The air characteristics for significant travel, however are not as good with sinking air occurring away from the site. Therefore only a moderate threat of travel is forecast today and tomorrow. Any pollen entrained into the air should stay at low levels and move to the north across central Missouri. If pollen does get into the mid elevations the travel pathway may take pollen concentrations over St. Louis. Therefore a moderate threat is forecast for deposition today and tomorrow.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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