University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 23 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Wednesday, January 23 TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by the movement of a dry line from west to east and the subsequent movement of a cold front from the Oklahoma/Kansas border into Mexico. Very warm conditions will prevail across Texas today as high temperatures reach the upper 70 s and low temperatures are in the 50 s ahead of the cold front. As it pass temperatures will lower into the upper 30 s to low 40 s tonight. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south/southwest then switching out of the north. However humidity will be high throughout the region and skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy. Humidity will start to drop as the dry line passes and there is little support for sustained rain, especially on the western side of the Edwards Plateau. To the north temperatures will also be warm prior to the passing of the cold front, but lows will be in the lower 30 s. Instability will result in possible thunderstorms to the east over the Ozark Mountain region. Skies will be cloudy with high humidity and moderate to strong winds will occur across the area from the north. On Thursday, Cooler conditions associated with the cold front will continue to push southward out of Texas and into northern Mexico. High temperatures in the Texas region will strive to get to 60 and lows will be in the twenties under clear skies. To the north 40 s will rule and low temperatures will also be in the mid 20 s. Moderate to strong winds from the north will continue.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the north across central Missouri crossing over the St. Louis urban area. The trajectories show characteristics of rapid lift off of the release site as they travel down wind. Winds will be from the south to southwest this morning until the cold front passes when they will switch, coming out of the north. In the Ozark Mountains, temperatures today will warm into the mid 60 s, and tomorrow will only reach the lower 40 s. Low temperatures will be near 30 tonight and in the 20 s tomorrow. The skies will be cloudy today with a 60-70% chance of thunderstorms and showers tonight and into tomorrow. Clearing skies on Thursday will allow for the cold overnight temperatures.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Warm temperatures, but high humidity, cloudy conditions and a significant chance of precipitation and thunderstorms will produce conditions that are unfavorable for pollen release today. Then cold conditions will continue to constrain release tomorrow. Therefore only a Low threat of deposition downwind is forecast today and tomorrow.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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