University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 24 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Thursday, January 24 TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by the movement of a cold front south across the Edwards Plateau today into northern Mexico. Very warm conditions yesterday will cool dramatically with high temperatures in the upper 40 s to the west and mid to upper 50 s to the east. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20 s to 30 s. With the passing of the cold front winds will be strong becoming northerly. Cloudy skies will occur across the area today and tonight. The chance of precipitation is greater than 40% in Dallas, Waco and Austin this morning. To the west showers, if they occur will be limited to early today with some isolated thunderstorm cells moving across the area. To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail with a chance of showers along the southern Oklahoma and Texas border. High temperatures will be in the mid 40 s and lows around freezing for Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. Tomorrow the weather will move towards the east and high pressure will begin to move into the area. Temperatures across the entire region will be in the 50 s with lows in the 30 s. Mostly sunny to sunny conditions will prevail and a general temperature warming will begin for the weekend.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south along the Arkansas/ Texas border. The trajectories show characteristics of limited lift then travel at or near ground level for the remainder of the pathway. Winds will be from the north today, but will switch to the southwest tomorrow. In the Ozark Mountains, temperatures today will only reach the low 40 s but warm to the 50 degree mark tomorrow. Low temperatures will be around freezing today and tomorrow night. Skies will remain cloudy today but will clear tonight with sunny conditions tomorrow.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cold temperatures, high humidity and cloudy conditions today will produce conditions that are unfavorable for pollen release. Cool conditions will continue to constrain release tomorrow but will improve towards the weekend. Indications from Texas are that the southern population is beginning to wrap up the pollination season. However, the status of the Ozark Mountain population remain unknown
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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