University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 24 January, 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Friday, January 25 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build across the southern plains today and tomorrow as the weather from the last couple days slides to the east. Temperatures will begin to warm with highs expected to be in the upper 50 s across Texas and lower 50 s to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region. Clear skies tonight will result in greater radiational cooling therefore lows will be in the mid 30 s in eastern portions of Texas and near freezing to the west and north into Oklahoma and Ozark Mountains. Flow across the region will switch from the northerly direction of the past couple of days to light to moderate southerly winds. On Saturday temperatures will warm another 5 to 7 degrees with highs throughout the region in the mid 60 s to the south and lower 60 s north. Clear sunny skies and light to moderate winds from the south to southwest are expected across the region.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the north across Missouri and into the upper mid-west. Sunny skies and warming temperatures will be the rule for the region over the next couple of days. Today high temperatures will be in the low 50 s warming to the upper 50 s tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate today from the south building tomorrow and shifting to the south/southwest. However, the trajectories show characteristics of limited lift then travel at or near ground level for the remainder of the pathway. Conditions that are not good from travel after entrainment.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today *** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Temperatures may be too cold for good release conditions today, but with sunny skies some warming at the tree level may bring cones to release.. Indications from Texas are that the southern population is beginning to wrap up the pollination season. However, the status of the Ozark Mountain population remains unknown. If pollination does occur the low level travel of the trajectories is usually not associated with long distance dispersal. Winds moving at ground level encounter enough obstacles that act as a filter. Therefore only a moderate threat exists for the dispersal downwind of pollen from this site.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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