University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 26 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Saturday, January 26 TX/OK/AR: High pressure will bring warm unseasonable condition today and tomorrow across the southern plains. Forecast high temperatures for the area today will be in the upper 60 s with low s in the mid to upper 40 s tonight. Dry, sunny , clear conditions will occur across the region with moderate winds from the south/southwest to south blowing across the region. To the north similar conditions will prevail with high and low temperatures only 5 degrees cooler than the southern areas. Dry conditions with similar winds directions will blow across the region, however winds will be moderate to strong in some areas. On Sunday temperatures will rise by 7 to 10 degrees with highs in the upper 70 s to the south and near 70 to the north. Dry conditions and similar wind strengths will remain in place. However high clouds will begin to move across the area and partly cloudy skies can be expected in the north and to the east as the day progresses.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the north across Missouri and into the upper mid-west. Sunny skies and warm temperatures will be the rule for the region today and tomorrow. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60 s both today and tomorrow. Lows will be in the upper 30 s today and warming into the low 40 s tomorrow. Winds will be light to moderate from the south to southwest both days. The trajectories show characteristics of limited lift with travel at or near ground level especially for the lowest elevation trajectory.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today and tomorrow *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be warm, the skies clear and dry making pollen release conditions very favorable. Indications from Texas are that the southern population is beginning to wrap up the pollination season. However, the status of the Ozark Mountain population remains unknown. If pollination does occur travel near ground level of the lowest trajectory is usually not associated with long distance dispersal. Winds moving at ground level encounter obstacles that act as a filter reducing the amount of pollen in the atmosphere. Therefore only a moderate threat exists for the dispersal downwind of pollen from this site both today and tomorrow.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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