Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 January, 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Monday, January 28  TX/OK/AR: Warm conditions will continue today and tomorrow and a cold front begins to move south towards the southern plains and a trough of low pressure continues to build towards the west.  Moderate to strong south to southwesterly winds across the region will bring moisture up from the gulf today and tomorrow ahead of weather changes later in the week.  High temperatures across the southern plains will be in the mid to upper 70 s with lows tonight in the upper 50 s and low 60 s.  Skies will become partly cloudy towards the afternoon and mostly cloudy tonight and into tomorrow.  To the north temperatures will be in the upper 60 s in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  On Tuesday rain will develop ahead of the cold front that is moving in from the north.  Tuesday night and Wednesday it should be stalled across the Red River country.  Cloudy skies and strong winds from the south will be ahead of it with winds switching to the north to northeast once it passes.  Rain is expected to the north with an increasing chance during the day on Tuesday and up to a quarter of an inch across the area Tuesday night.  Precipitation is expected across Texas on Wednesday.                     

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the  northeast across Missouri and into the Ohio River valley.  Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will occur this morning, but increasing clouds tonight and tomorrow will bring higher humidity and a significant chance of rain.  Precipitation on Tuesday should result in a quarter inch accumulation.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60 s today and 5 to 7 degrees cooler tomorrow.  Lows will be in the upper 30 s and lower 40 s both days.  Moderate to strong winds will be from the south to southwest today switching to the north tonight and tomorrow.  The trajectories show characteristics of lift as they travel away from the source site, conditions that are good for entrainment and travel.   

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat of travel today *** Favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies will be conducive today form pollen release, entrainment and travel.  However conditions will deteriorate this afternoon and tomorrow with increasing clouds, humidity and a significant chance of precipitation.    Indications from Texas are that the southern population is near the end of the pollination season.  However, the status of the Ozark Mountain population remains unknown.  If pollination does occur the trajectories indicate that the material will travel over the St. Louis metropolitan area as it moves east.  Therefore a moderate threat is forecast, but is dependent upon the amount of pollen that remains unreleased within the populations. Significant chance of rain tomorrow will dampen any release on Tuesday.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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