University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 29 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Tuesday, January 29 TX/OK/AR: Warm conditions will continue today with some cooling tomorrow as a cold front continues from the north into Texas from Oklahoma over the next two days. In addition a strong weather system will begin to move through the area from the west during the forecast period. Today temperatures across Texas will be warm again with highs in the mid to upper 70 s and lows in the upper 50 s to lower 60 s. Strong to moderate southerly winds will continue to push humid air in from the Gulf bringing humidity up and overcast/cloudy skies will be present throughout the forecast area. To the north a significant chance of rain is forecast today with high temperatures only reaching the upper 50 s to low 60 s and lows between the low 40 s and freezing. This afternoon rain and showers are expected across the region in a band that stretches from southwest Oklahoma to the northeast. Tomorrow rain will develop across northern Texas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the mid to upper 60 s. Lows will also be warm and in the 40 s to 50s. Winds will continue from the south below the cold front stalled in northern Texas and from the north where the front has pushed through. In Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, high temperatures will drop into the 40s and lower 50s, with lows around freezing. Significant precipitation should fall around the area with upwards of an inch in some places. A chance of wintery mix with snow and sleet is possible for Wednesday night
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast across Missouri and into the Ohio River valley. Temperatures will be warm today, in the upper 50 s and lower 60 s, across the region. However, high humidity and cloudy conditions with an increasing chance of rain this afternoon and into tomorrow is forecast. Tomorrow a significant chance of rain will occur all day with the possibility of an inch of precipitation. The trajectories show characteristics of lift as they travel away from the source site, conditions that are good for entrainment and travel. However, the weather conditions will preclude any long distance transport of pollen from the trees.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Warm temperatures will occur throughout the area today, but skies will be overcast and cloudy and high humidity readings all combine for a low chance of significant pollen release. Significant amounts of rainfall are forecast for this afternoon into this evening across the area with levels of ½ inch possible in many areas. In addition, the trees are near the end of their pollination cycle therefore adding to the low risk for release. The trajectory forecasts travel from the area to the northeast, but the exclusion of available pollen from the site significantly reduces the possibility of downwind travel and influx of pollen.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page