Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 January, 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 30  TX/OK/AR: Warm conditions will continue today to the south of a cold front that will sag across the area bringing widespread range of precipitation, thunderstorms, and strong winds.  For example the forecast high temperatures in San Antonio and Austin are in the mid 70 s but to the north the threat of freezing rain will occur throughout Oklahoma and may reach south of the Red River this afternoon and into evening.  Widespread precipitation will occur along a swath from northeast New Mexico towards northeast Oklahoma.  Rainfall amounts may be significant over the next 24 to 36 hours.  As the cold front sags to the south during today and tomorrow a well organized upper level low-pressure system will move across the area.  Ahead of the front, the mix of cold air may bring the chance of thunderstorms with hail as well as strong winds.  As the system moves through and temperatures drop the chance of a wintry mix of precipitation will increase across the area.  The weather system should begin to clear the area by Thursday afternoon with increased chance of clearing.  Clear conditions will begin in the west and move to the east on Thursday.  In northern most Oklahoma a chance of wrap around snows may occur behind the front after it has passed.                    

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the  north across Missouri and Kansas ahead of the continued development of a strong upper level low-pressure system.  At the surface winds move southward getting mixed into the movement of the cold front. Temperatures will cool from yesterday with highs only in the 40 s and upper 30 s today and tomorrow.  However, high humidity and cloudy conditions are increasing and a significant chance of rain will occur this afternoon and tomorrow.  The trajectories show characteristics of lift as they travel away from the source site, conditions that are good for entrainment and travel. However, the weather conditions will preclude any long distance transport of pollen from the trees.  

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions will combine with low temperatures, overcast skies, and  high humidity resulting in steady rain for a low chance of significant pollen release today or tomorrow.  Significant amounts of rainfall are forecast for this afternoon into this evening across the area with levels of more than ½  inch possible in many areas.  In addition, the trees are near the end of their pollination cycle therefore adding to the low risk for release.  The trajectory forecasts travel away from the area, but the exclusion of available pollen from the site significantly reduces the possibility of downwind travel and influx of pollen.

  Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).  This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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