University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 31 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Thursday, January 31 TX/OK/AR: Cool conditions will occur throughout the region today as a significant weather system move to the east away from the area. Across Texas, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 50 s with lows tonight in the 20 s and 30 s. Rain showers will occur in northern Texas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. These showers will move east this afternoon and evening bringing partly cloudy skies to the region. On the western side of the Edwards Plateau, cooler temperatures and only partly cloudy skies will prevail today and tonight. To the north, freezing rain and a wintry mix are forecast for the Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas, respectively. Conditions will improve this afternoon and into the evening as the weather system moves to the northeast. High temperatures will be in the upper 30 s with lows in the 20 s. Tomorrow, high pressure begins to build in from the west. Skies will clear, and warmer temperatures area forecast. A warm up of 5 to 10 degrees is expected to the north and similar temperature ranges as seen on Thursday are expected across the Texas region.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east/southeast across Arkansas and northern Mississippi and into Alabama. Temperatures will be cool today with highs in the upper 30 s and low 40 s across the region. A significant chance of showers occurs this morning, but these should diminish throughout the day and move to east overnight and into tomorrow. A chance of freezing rain exists for the northern areas. Tomorrow conditions will improve as the weather system moves to the east. High temperatures will remain the same but lows will drop as clear skies allow for greater radiational cooling. The trajectories show characteristics of ground level travel as they move from the source site, conditions that are not good for entrainment and travel.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Low temperatures, precipitation this morning and overcast skies result in a low chance of significant pollen release today or tomorrow. Significant amounts of rainfall are forecast for this morning into the afternoon hours across the area. In addition, the trees are at the end of their pollination cycle therefore there is a low risk for release. The trajectory forecasts travel away from the area, but the exclusion of available pollen from the site significantly reduces the possibility of downwind travel and pollen influx. Note ****Because the pollination season for Juniperus ashei is at an end the last forecast will be posted tomorrow on the 1st of February. Thank you for your interest in this service and join us again next year.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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