University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 01 February 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional weather: Friday, February 01 TX/OK/AR: Temperatures will begin a slow warm up after the weather of this week has moved to the east and high pressure builds over the area. In Texas temperatures will be in the 50 s today and upper 50 s tomorrow. Low temperatures will remain at or near freezing for much of the area. The areas to the south and north, off of the Edwards Plateau will stay warmer. High levels of humidity will result in some clouds during the day but partly cloudy conditions overnight as the atmosphere cools. Partly cloudy conditions will remain on Saturday. Moderate winds will be out of the north today but switch to the south/southeast as the High pressure begins to move towards the northeast tomorrow afternoon. In Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region, temperatures will be in the 40 s cooling to the upper 30 s in higher elevations and to the north. Mostly sunny skies will prevail with moderate northerly breezes. Clear skies tonight will give way to partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday. Low temperatures will be in the teens and twenties. High temperatures on Saturday will return to the 40 s and the winds will switch to a southerly direction.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south over Arkansas where they stall. Temperatures will be cool today with highs in the 30 s across the region. Lows tonight will be in the teens but conditions will warm slightly on Saturday. Skies will be mostly sunny, clear overnight and then mostly sunny tomorrow becoming partly cloudy late. Light to moderate winds will be from the northwest today switching to the south/southwest overnight.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Low temperatures and high humidity combine for a low chance of significant pollen release, entrainment and travel. The trees are at the end of their pollination cycle therefore adding a low risk for significant amounts of Juniperus ashei pollen in the atmosphere. Because the pollination season for Juniperus ashei is at an end this is the last forecast for the year. Thank you for your interest in this service and join us again next year.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): OakGrove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to ForecastingHome Page