University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 01 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 01  TX/OK/AR: Cold northern air continues to be established over the southern plains.  However a weak weather system will move through the area today and tonight bringing the possibility of snow to the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.  Along the edge of the Edwards Plateau precipitation will fall primarily as rain.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail with a chance of precipitation, as snow, for the southern half of the state.  This includes Oklahoma City and Ardmore.  High temperatures in the central Texas region will only be in the mid to lower 40 s with a 10 degree cooling towards the north as Tulsa will only reach the mid 30 s.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 20 s to low 30 s in the Texas region and upper 20 s to upper teens along a north to south pathway across the state of Oklahoma.   The Ozark Mountain region will remain below freezing today and into the teen tonight.  On Wednesday the weather system will push over the area toward the southeast with cloudy conditions breaking up towards along the western portion of the Edwards Plateau and to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains.  The clearing skies will result in very cold temperatures.  Across Texas highs in the mid- 40 s will give way to lows in the lower to mid 20 s.  Oklahoma will see temperatures in the teens and the Ozark Mountain region will be in single digits.  Winds will be moderate to light and out of the north to northeast throughout the region.       

Trajectory weather:  The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains flow to the southwest, just west of the Dallas/Fort Worth region.  Weather conditions throughout northern Texas and southern Oklahoma will be cloudy and cold with high temperatures only in the 30 s today and tomorrow.  Increased humidity will accompany the passage of a weather system on Tuesday that may bring snow showers to the area.  Accumulation of an inch or more is possible during the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. Clouds will clear during the day on Wednesday resulting in even colder conditions.  Low temperatures on Wednesday night will be in the teens. Winds will remain moderate to light out of the north to northeast

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will not favor pollen release today or tomorrow.  Cold temperatures, cloudy conditions and increased humidity will occur this today and this evening.  A significant chance of precipitation, potentially as snow, is forecast for areas just south of the Red River.  The cold conditions will continue on Wednesday as the skies clear.  

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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