University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 02 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 02  TX/OK/AR: Cold northern air continues to be established over the southern plains with high temperatures on Wednesday only reaching into the lower 40 s and high 30 s.  Northern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma continue to see a chance of snow flurries this morning moving to the east and diminishing through the day.  During the afternoon and evening clearing will allow temperatures to fall to their lowest levels seen this winter.  Low temperatures to the south will be in the lower 20 s to upper teens whereas in Oklahoma and Ozark Mountains they will border on the single digits.  Winds will be moderate during the day falling to light overnight and out of the north to northwest, region wide.  On Thursday, high pressure will begin to build.  A regional warming will occur ahead of a wet weather system arriving on Friday.  In Texas high temperatures will be in the low 50 s across the region.  In Oklahoma high temperatures will be five degrees cooler.   Low s will see the greatest warming with Thursday night temperatures in the mid 30 s to the south and lower 30 s north.  Winds will switch to the south to southwest and be moderate to light on a north to south gradient.          

Trajectory weather:  The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains flow to the south, over the Dallas/Fort Worth region.  Weather conditions throughout northern Texas and southern Oklahoma will start cloudy with a chance of lingering snow flurries this morning.  Clearing and the beginning of drying with lower humidity, will result in the coldest overnight temperatures of the winter season.  Warming on Thursday with the establishment of high pressure will result in a shift to southerly winds but temperatures will remain cold and clouds and humidity begin to build back into the area at the end of the week.  Winds remain moderate to light out of the north to northwest today switching to the south to southwest on Thursday.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will not favor pollen release today or tomorrow.  Cold temperatures, a slight chance of snow flurries this morning and high humidity make for unfavorable pollen release conditions.  On Thursday conditions warm but temperatures remain cool.  The area should be clear of significant Juniperus ashei pollen concentrations.

 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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