Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Mod

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis

Low

Date Issued: 04 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, January 04  TX/OK/AR: Precipitation will occur over the area for the next two days as an upper level low pressure heads east out of the Rocky Mountains towards the Southeastern U.S.  Today , high pressure over eastern Texas and Louisiana will continue to move east creating moderate southerly winds ahead of the low moving in from the west.  Early conditions will be relatively dry but moisture will begin to build and mixed clouds and sun will give way to mostly cloudy conditions.  Regional wind fields will be moderate and from the south, varying to the southeast or southwest depending upon location.  Areas on the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and to the north have significant chances of rain forecast for later this afternoon and evening and continuing on Saturday.  High temperatures to the south in central Texas will be in the low 50 s and upper 40 s throughout Oklahoma and the lower 40 s in the Ozark Mountains.  Low temperatures will be in the 40 s to the south, mid 30 s in Oklahoma and lower 30 s in the Ozark Mountains.  Precipitation is forecast throughout the area as rain, but mixed conditions and some snow may occur from Tulsa to the Northeast into the Ozark Mountain area depending upon the timing and local temperature conditions.  Rainy conditions will occur throughout eastern areas of the southern plains on Saturday.  Temperatures remain stable but wind strength increases from moderate to strong across the area.  Clearing will begin in the afternoon, initially in the west and south, with partly cloudy conditions maintained in eastern Texas and Oklahoma going into Sunday.            

Trajectory weather:  The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move quickly to the north before turning towards the east.  Weather conditions throughout Oklahoma will remain cold with highs in the mid 40 s.  The day will begin dry but increased humidity will result in clouds this afternoon and tomorrow as a significant chance of precipitation is forecast for this evening and tomorrow.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 30 s tonight and drop by 5 degrees on Saturday.  Winds will remain moderate and from the south throughout today switching to a north by northwest direction as the front passes over the region. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will not favor pollen release today or tomorrow.  Cold temperatures, with increasing humidity this morning as clouds and the chance of rain increase throughout the day.  If pollen is released this morning, then conditions are good for this material to be carried north over Oklahoma City.  Rain and higher humidity will build this afternoon and into tomorrow.  For this reason a moderate threat to central Oklahoma is listed but support for the dispersal looks very limited.  In general, the area should remain clear of significant Juniperus ashei pollen release and transport.

 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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