University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 05 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Saturday, January 05  TX/OK/AR: Precipitation will be ending today as an upper level low pressure moves over the area and to the southeast.  Precipitation will occur primarily along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and north into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Partly cloudy conditions will occur along the western side of the Plateau.  Winds will be moderate to strong, out of the north to northwest throughout the day with a reduction of wind strength overnight.  High temperatures on the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will be in the mid 50 s with cooler conditions to the north and warming to the south.  Lows will be in the upper 30 s and again cooler to the north and warmer to the south.  In Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains high temperatures will be in the mid 40 s with lows around freezing.  Clearing will occur overnight and Sunday promises to be sunny throughout the region.  High pressure begins to build and temperatures will head toward the 60 s across Texas.  In Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains high temperatures will remain in the 40 s.  Winds will be from the north to northwest and be moderate to strong throughout the region.        

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the southeast towards the direction of the low pressure that is moving out of the area.  High pressure over the Rockies will continue to feed a north to northwest wind field today and tomorrow.  Light to moderate winds will increase across the area tomorrow with some strong winds expected.  Today, expect mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with increased clearing towards the evening. Current cool, wet conditions will transition to dryer and warmer conditions on Sunday. 

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Low threat on Sunday *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will not favor pollen release today or tomorrow.  Cold temperatures and a significant chance of precipitation will occur this morning with warmer and dryer conditions forecast for tomorrow.  The cooler conditions and short time period since precipitation was recorded will hinder any pollen release.  However, if conditions continue to improve on Monday significant pollen release may occur.  In general, the area should remain clear of significant Juniperus ashei pollen release and transport.

 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and EstelleLevetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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