University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 07 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Monday, January 07  TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions from Sunday will continue on Monday and Tuesday with a significant warming trend over the next couple of days.  High pressure begins to build over the region starting on Monday and continues through the week.  Winds will be moderate from the north during the day on Monday and then shift to the south over night but be calm.  To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, winds will be from the west switching to the southwest overnight.  High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach the upper 50 s on Monday and into the mid to upper 60 s on Tuesday.  Lows overnight on Monday will be in the mid 30 s warming to the mid 40 s on Tuesday.  To the north temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler all around with highs on Monday in the upper 40 s and upper 50 s to low 60 s on Tuesday.  Low temperatures will be near or below freezing Monday night and in the lower 40 s to upper 30 s on Tuesday night.  Winds in this region will remain moderate to light out of the southwest on Tuesday.  Throughout the entire region sunny skies will stay clear on Monday night and only northern Oklahoma will see partly cloudy conditions on Tuesday but then clear towards the evening.       

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast over the Tulsa area and through Missouri, with the upper winds reach St. Louis over the next 48 hour period.  Light to moderate winds on Monday morning, out of the north to northwest, turn to the south to southwest later in the day.  Sunny skies and warming conditions will lead to drying throughout the region.  Warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday.   

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will begin to favor pollen release today as temperatures warm and sunny skies lead to drier conditions.  However, high temperatures on Monday will remain cool but pollen release may occur in limited amounts.  In addition, the air trajectory characteristics show little lift with elevations maintaining throughout their coarse.  Therefore, if pollen is entrained a limited dispersal is expected. The trajectories pass over the Tulsa area and would see the greatest chance of deposition compared to the later travel of the upper winds over St. Louis.  Watch for tomorrows forecast as significant entrainment and travel may be in the winds.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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