University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 08 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 08  TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern plains as high pressure builds over the area.  Temperatures will continue to warm today and tomorrow with highs in the Texas region reaching the upper 60 s to low 70 s today and into the low to mid 70 s tomorrow.  The warming continues north today with high temperatures close to 70 in Oklahoma and into the 60 s in the Ozark Mountain region.  Lows throughout the region tonight will be in the 40 s.  On Wednesday the southern low temperatures will be in the lower 50 s to upper 40 s and 5 to 7 degrees cooler to the north.  Winds on both days will be from the south to southwest across the region and be moderate on Wednesday gaining strength on Thursday as a front begins to cross the area.  Late Wednesday, skies will become partly cloudy across the region ahead of a front moving through on Thursday.  Model predictions show cloudiness but little support for precipitation.  However, a cut-off low developing to the west may result in significant precipitation over the weekend and into the beginning of next week.          

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast over the Tulsa area and through Missouri, over the St. Louis area.  Light to moderate winds on Tuesday will be accompanied by warm temperatures and a drying atmosphere.  The trajectories show stable to slightly sinking air mass characteristics, conditions that are not conducive to pollen entrainment and travel.  Warmer conditions are expected on Wednesday.   

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release today as temperatures warm and sunny skies lead to drier conditions.  However, the travel characteristics for the air masses are not as good for travel and entrainment as could be.  These conditions are expected to change on Wednesday ahead of a cold front moving across the area. Therefore, the pollen entrained will result in a limited dispersal.  But the conditions are very favorable for pollen release so a severe threat to the downwind populations is being forecast.  Conditions may worsen tomorrow which will probably have the greatest chance for influx into outlying areas.  The trajectories pass over the Tulsa area and would see the greatest chance of deposition compared to their later travel over St. Louis.  Watch for tomorrows forecast as significant entrainment and travel may be in the winds.

 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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