Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
High |
Tulsa |
High |
St. Louis |
High |
Date Issued: 09 January 2002
Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Wednesday, January 09 TX/OK/AR: Sunny conditions will prevail across the southern plains as high pressure remains over the area today. Temperatures will be warm today but significant cooling will occur tonight and tomorrow as a cold front pushes south from Nebraska across the area. High temperatures in Texas will be in the upper 70 s across the eastern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and reach the low 80 s to the west. Low temperatures will cool to the upper 40 s. To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark region high temperatures will reach the upper 60 s to low 70 s with slightly cooler conditions northward and in the Ozark Mountain area. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40 s. The cold front will push across the area from north to south beginning tonight. Southerly winds will begin to reverse as it passes. This reversal will occur around midnight in northern Oklahoma, early morning in southern Oklahoma and by noon on Thursday in central Texas. Cloudy conditions and increasing humidity will accompany the passage of the cold front, but weather models indicate little support for precipitation accompanying the weather front as it passes. However a slight chance of showers or sprinkles does exist, especially over the Ozark Mountain region. Both high and low temperatures on Thursday will drop 15 to 20 degrees as the front passes.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north/ northeast over the Tulsa area during the day then encounter the cold front reverse directions and move to the south. The trajectories show movement towards across the Oklahoma/Kansas border passing over Tulsa, then moving south over Oklahoma City and into Texas. The trajectories show rising air mass characteristics, conditions that are very conducive to pollen entrainment and travel. Increasing humidity and the chance of showers in northeastern Oklahoma should help to clean the air once the cold front passes with the possibility of significant deposition of pollen across the region.
Trajectory confidence: High.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release today as temperatures warm and sunny skies lead to drier conditions. However, a cold front will work south out of Kansas and Nebraska arriving by midnight in northern Oklahoma and early morning in southern Oklahoma. Prior to its passage, the travel characteristics for the air masses look good for travel and entrainment. Conditions are very favorable for pollen release so a severe threat to the downwind populations is forecast. Pollen from the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau may combine in the area along with that released from the Arbuckle Mountains. The trajectories pass over the Tulsa area before being turned by the cold front and moving south/southwest over the Oklahoma City region. A significant chance of deposition occurs for the area. Winds tomorrow will be from the north, therefore any pollen release with the cooler and more humid conditions should travel southward leaving the Oklahoma area unaffected.
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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