University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, January 10  TX/OK/AR: Cloudy conditions will prevail over the southern plains today from Oklahoma into Texas.  A cold front continues to push southward dropping temperatures from the highs of yesterday and moisture at the mid-levels will be brought into the region by a cut-off low pressure moving across northern Mexico.  In Texas, high temperatures will be generally 10 degrees cooler with highs in the 60 s to the north and just reaching into the 70 s in the south.  Winds will be moderate to strong and from the north throughout the region.  In Oklahoma temperatures will reach the upper 50 s with lows around freezing to the north and 5 degrees cooler near the Texas border.  Very windy conditions are forecast for the Oklahoma City area with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph out of the north. The Ozark Mountain region will have a 40% chance of showers today and this evening with temperatures in the low 50 s and lows around freezing.  Friday will continue the trend with continued cooling and mixed cloudy sky conditions.  High temperatures will remain in the 50 s throughout the Texas and Oklahoma region with lows in the upper 30 s.  The Ozark Mountains will only reach the upper 40 s with low temperatures below freezing as the skies clear to the east during the evening.  Winds throughout the region remain moderate and from the north       

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move due south over the Dallas/Fort Worth area, over Austin, and down along the Gulf Coast.  Cooler conditions will occur with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50 s and lows in the upper 30 s.  Humidity is on the rise and the skies will remain cloudy to partly cloudy today and tomorrow.  Winds will be moderate from the north and travel at ground level on their pathway south.  Air characteristics are not good for entrainment and travel.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release today but temperatures will strive to reach conditions warm enough, the skies will remain cloudy and increased humidity will all dampen large releases.  Conditions have been so good for the last couple days that there may be ripe cones that continue to release as the conditions continue to deteriorate.  However, conditions for entrainment and travel downwind are not particularly good.  Therefore only a moderate chance of influx into the Dallas/ Fort Worth area is expected if any.  Any pollen swept from this population is expected to be deposited relatively close to the source area.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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