University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Saturday, January 12  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build over the southern plains today and most of tomorrow bringing sunny clear skies both days to Texas but partly cloudy conditions will occur to the north with some clearing overnight.  High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the lower 60 s to the south and mid to upper 50 s in Oklahoma.  The Ozark Mountain will barely reach the 50 degree mark today and tomorrow. Low temperatures will be in the 30 s throughout the region with conditions in the 20s in the Ozark Mountain area.  Winds will be from the north region wide on Saturday but over Saturday night a strong trough will move through the area switching the winds to the south/southwest.  This switch will occur from the west to east as the trough moves over the region and cause wind speeds to climb from moderate to strong in the north and west.  This system carries little moisture with it so humidity levels will remain low.  

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the east/southeast just south of the Oklahoma/Texas border then turn sharply to the northeast as a trough moves through the area.  Cool conditions will occur with high temperatures in the upper 50 s and lows in the mid to lower 30 s.  Humidity will remain relatively dry over the weekend.  However in northern Oklahoma sunny conditions will prevail with clouds building on Sunday.  To the south the skies will be sunny and clear both days.  Winds will remain from the north to northwest throughout Saturday and then shift out of the south to southwest as a trough moves through the area.  Winds will travel at ground level along their trajectory but increase on Sunday.  Air characteristics are not good for entrainment and travel on Saturday but improve on Sunday. Stronger winds with lift have the potential for carrying pollen considerable distances to the east.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat today *** Favorable conditions for pollen release today and Sunday.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release today but temperatures will still be on the cool side.  In southern Oklahoma, the skies will remain clear and sunny with low humidity and increasing winds over the weekend.  Conditions have been good for the last few days and ripe cones are expected to release, but perhaps not at the rate seen earlier in the week.  Conditions for entrainment and travel downwind are not particularly good today but improve for Sunday.  Therefore only a moderate chance of travel away from the population is expected and if it occurs will flow to the southeast and then northeast into Arkansas away from major metropolitan area, but may affect Ft. Smith and Fayetteville Arkansas.  On Sunday the trajectories will move over eastern Oklahoma on a fast path to the northeast crossing essentially the same areas as they do on Saturday.  Some effects may be felt as far west on Sunday as Tulsa.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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