University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Monday, January 14  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build over the southern plains today and tonight bringing sunny clear skies with seasonal temperatures throughout.  Winds will generally be from the north to northwest and moderate today but switching to the south/southwest as the high pressure begins to move to the east/northeast tomorrow.  High temperatures today will be in the mid 60 s across Texas and in mid to upper 50 s in Oklahoma.  The Ozark Mountain area will only reach the upper 40 s today.  The clear skies and calming winds overnight will result in low temperatures hovering around the freezing mark across Texas.  To the north temperatures will be in the mid to lower 20 s in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Weather conditions on Tuesday will remain sunny but increasing clouds will result in partly cloudy skies on Tuesday night.  High temperatures will be very similar to those on Monday.  Increased wind strength on Tuesday will result in a 10 degree warming of overnight lows as the atmosphere remains mixed and partly cloudy conditions prevail over the region.

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the southeast south of the Oklahoma/Texas border and east of the Dallas/Fort Worth urban area then turn sharply to the north as the high pressure begins to move to the northeast and winds start coming out of the south.  Warm conditions will occur with high temperatures close to 60 both today and tomorrow, but lows will be below freezing.  Humidity will remain relatively dry and skies will be sunny and clear across the region today and tomorrow.  The area can expect increasing clouds on Tuesday night.  Winds initially travel at ground level along their trajectory but as they pass back over the release site, they begin to increase in elevation and may entrain pollen at that point.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Mod threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release today and tomorrow but temperatures will be on the cool side.  Sunny skies and dry conditions with low humidity and moderate winds building to stronger levels on Tuesday suggest that limited release and entrainment may occur.  The initial movement of the trajectories to the south do not show characteristics conducive to travel downwind, but the trajectories do track back over the site at approximately the same elevation then rise as they head north.  For these reasons a moderate threat exists for Oklahoma City.  Whether or not the trajectories deposit significant amounts of pollen in the area depends on the timing and the pollen supply in southern Oklahoma. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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