University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 15  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will move to the east over Arkansas today as low pressure builds over eastern New Mexico.  This combination will result in a south to southwesterly flow into the southern plains resulting in seasonal temperatures and sunny skies today.  Increased clouds tonight will build across the northern area with mostly cloudy and/or mixed conditions on Wednesday and partly cloudy conditions Wednesday night.  Today, high temperatures across Texas will be in the mid to upper 60 s with lows in the mid 40 s overnight.  On Wednesday high temperatures will rise by 5 to 7 degrees into the mid 70 s as will low temperatures to the east.  On the western side of the Plateau, temperatures will fall off by 5 to 7 degrees Wednesday night.  To the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark region high temperatures today will be in the upper 50 s to low 60 s in Oklahoma and upper 40 s in the Ozark Mountain region today and tomorrow.  Low temperatures will be in the 40 s in Oklahoma and near freezing in the Ozark Mountains today falling by 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow night.  Winds throughout the region will be from the south to southeast switching to the south to southwest overnight and into tomorrow.  Moderate to strong winds will occur to the north around Oklahoma City and Tulsa 

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north/northwest quickly with the support of strong winds, then turn towards the east over the Great Plains.  Warm conditions will occur with high temperatures close to 60 both today and tomorrow, and lows will be in the mid 40 s tonight but back near freezing tomorrow night.  Humidity will remain relatively dry and skies will be sunny and clear across the region today but increased moisture will come into the area ahead of a weak cold front dropping down from the north tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Strong winds will occur throughout the area today with a lot of lift as seen by the trajectories.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will favor pollen release today but be reduced tomorrow as skies become cloudy and humidity rises.  Sunny skies and dry conditions with low humidity and moderate to strong winds will be coupled to trajectory characteristics that look very good for entrainment and travel. The trajectory movement to the north shows a westerly component taking any pollen away from the Oklahoma City urban area.  However, the trajectory from the southern Edward s Plateau does cross the area then travels into eastern Oklahoma.  For this reason a severe threat exists for Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  Whether or not the trajectories deposit significant amounts of pollen in the area depends on the timing and the pollen supply traveling into southern Oklahoma. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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