University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 17  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated today by upper elevation westerly flow and the position of a cold front that will center across southern Texas.  Across the southern plains temperatures will remain seasonal with highs reaching the upper 60 s to low 70 s on the western edge of the Edwards Plateau with mixed clouds and sun becoming partly cloudy overnight.  To the northeast temperatures will be 10 degrees cooler as skies will be mostly cloudy during the day.  Low temperatures will be in the 30 s to the northwest grading to the low 50 s along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.  Winds will remain very light throughout today and tonight.  Wind direction to the north will be from the north and south of the stalled cold front from the south to southwest.  Mid-level moisture down to the surface will result in higher humidity than has occurred over the past week.  On Thursday, Temperatures will cool 5 to 7 degrees with the cold front moving slightly southward.  Low temperatures will follow a similar pattern as Wednesday night.  Winds across the region will increase to moderate levels and be from the north to northeast except on the western side of the plateau where they will come from the southeast.  To the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region, high temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low 40 s to upper 30 s with lows in the twenties and teens.  Similar levels will be reached on Thursday as well.  Winds will be from the north to northeast across the area and mostly cloudy conditions will prevail with an increasing chance of rain on Thursday night.                

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south then circle around to the north and south again.   High temperatures in the area will only be in the 40 s today and tomorrow with low s in the twenties.  Cloudy conditions and increasing humidity along with a 50% chance of precipitation tomorrow all suggest conditions not well suited to pollen release, entrainment and travel.  Winds associated with the regional weather conditions results in light conditions today and tomorrow.  In addition, elevation gain from the trajectories occurs but not significantly until some time after release resulting in poor conditions for entrainment and travel.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will be poor for pollen release today with cloudy skies and rising humidity.  A chance of showers is forecast for the area on Thursday afternoon and evening.  Poor characteristics occur for significant levels of pollen from the area to reach entrainment and travel any distance.  Areas around the Arbuckle population should be clear of pollen today and tomorrow.  A moderate chance of pollen deposition does occur for Oklahoma City, Tulsa and St. Louis from pollen entrained over southern Texas. However cloudy humid conditions at mid-levels is not indicative of good travel conditions.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page