University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, January 18  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated today and tomorrow by the movement of an upper level weather system.  High pressure over the central plains will come into contact with a fast moving weather front that passes over the region tonight and tomorrow.  High temperatures throughout the southern areas will remain seasonal but cooler than the past week with most places reaching the 60 s today and warming by 5 to 7 degrees tomorrow.  Lows tonight will also be warm and in the mid to upper 40 s.  Cooler conditions will occur tomorrow night as the skies clear late.  As the weather system moves across the northern areas precipitation will develop over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.  High temperatures on both days will barely reach the 40 s in Oklahoma and be 5 degrees cooler in the Ozark Mountain region.  Cloudy skies today will increase and precipitiation in the form of freezing rain and/or snow will occur overnight and into tomorrow morning.  Winds across the entire area will be light to moderate except for the passage of the weather system out of the west overnight when the western portion of Texas and central Oklahoma wind speeds will be strong at 20 to 25 miles per hour.  On Saturday conditions will calm with northerly winds and temperatures in the same range as Friday.  Skies will begin to clear towards the afternoon and evening.                

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move north then to the south across north Texas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  The upper elevation winds shift to the east compared to the other two elevations.  High temperatures in the area will only be in the 40 s today and tomorrow with low s in the thirties and twenties.  Cloudy conditions and increasing humidity along with a 50% chance of precipitation today all suggest conditions not well suited to pollen release, entrainment and travel.  Winds associated with the regional weather conditions will be moderate today and tomorrow, but a period of strong winds will occur overnight as the weather system moves across the area.  In addition, elevation gain from the trajectories occurs early but then shows sinking characteristics for the remainder of its pathway.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will be poor for pollen release today with cloudy skies and rising humidity and a significant chance of precipitation this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning.  Poor characteristics occur for significant levels of pollen from the area to reach entrainment and travel any distance.  Areas around the Arbuckle population should be clear of pollen today and tomorrow. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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