University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Saturday, January 19  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains is on the tail end of the movement of an upper level weather system.  Precipitation will occur across eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas this morning shifting towards the east as the day progresses.  High pressure will establish over the Rocky Mountains resulting in moderate northerly winds throughout the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy but clearing towards the evening.  Tonight and tomorrow a high pressure will build over the Texas area swinging the winds to the south to southeast and bringing dryer warmer air into the region for Sunday.  High temperatures across Texas will barely get to 60 degrees today with most areas firmly entrenched in the 50 s.  Lows will be in the low 30 s to just below freezing.  To the north high temperatures will be in the 40 s in Oklahoma and 30 s across the Ozark Mountains.  Lows will be below freezing.  On Sunday, conditions continue to warm across the region as dryer air moves across.  A trough develops over the panhandle and moves through the area but with little precipitation associated with it.  High temperatures in the Texas region will warm by 5 to 7 degrees into the mid to upper 60 s but low temperatures will remain in the lower 30 s as the skies begin to clear.  A similar warming will occur in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region but highs will only reach the mid 50 s to mid 40 s.  Low temperatures will be in the low 30 s to mid 20 s.                 

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains initially move southward, then turn north and sweep to the northeast over eastern Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains.  High temperatures in the area will only be in the 40 s today and low 50 s tomorrow with low s in the twenties and low thirties on Sunday.  Cloudy conditions early will give way to clear and sunny conditions this afternoon and evening but with increasing clouds late on Sunday.  Winds associated with the regional weather conditions will start from the north to northwest then turn to the south later today and tomorrow.  Trajectory conditions show that flow initially is near the ground surface for some time until some elevation gain occurs.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today/Moderate threat tomorrow *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today, moderately favorable conditions tomorrow.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will be poor for pollen release today with cool temperatures and drying conditions.  On Sunday temperatures will warm allowing some pollen release. Today poor characteristics occur for significant levels of pollen from the area to reach entrainment and travel any distance, with better conditions for release and travel tomorrow. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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