University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Monday, January 21  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by high pressure building over the Texas region today and the movement of a trough out of the west on Tuesday.  Warm temperatures will occur across the region with highs in Texas in the mid to upper 60 s and near 60 in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Lows will be in the mid 40 s south and upper 30 s to the north.  Sunny to mostly sunny skies will prevail today and into this evening turning partly cloudy across the region late tonight into tomorrow morning.  Winds will be from the south to southeast along the eastern portions of the Edwards Plateau and to the south to southwest to the west and north.  Moderate to light winds will occur to the south and moderate winds to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  On Tuesday, the high pressure will move to the east as the trough developing to the west moves into the area.  Overcast, cloudy to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region turning to mostly cloudy conditions overnight.  Sprinkles may occur along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and a 70% chance of precipitation is forecast for the Dallas area.  Winds across the region will be from the southwest and moderate to strong., especially in Oklahoma where winds from 20 to 30 mph are forecast for both Oklahoma City and Tulsa.  Temperatures, however, will remain warm and near 70 across Texas and in the lower 60 s to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains.                  

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on moderate to strong winds, leaving the area relatively quickly.  Temperatures in the area will warm into the 60 s today and tomorrow with lows in the 40 s.  Sunny skies today with decreased humidity will provide ideal conditions, but cloudy conditions return tonight and tomorrow.  Winds associated with the regional weather conditions will be from the south and moderate today increasing to strong gusty conditions tomorrow.  Trajectory conditions show relatively stable conditions that then begin to rise as the air masses move to the north.  Strong characteristics for entrainment and travel are indicated from the southern Oklahoma population.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will be very favorable for pollen release today with warm temperatures and dry, sunny conditions.  Monday night and into Tuesday temperatures will remain warm but skies will become partly to mostly cloudy in the region and winds will increase becoming strong.  Good characteristics occur for significant levels of pollen from the area to reach entrainment and travel putting the downwind areas of Oklahoma City in the pathway of pollen from the Arbuckle Mountains.  Trajectories from Texas also flow over Oklahoma City and Tulsa increasing the risk of significant deposition in those areas.  Increasing humidity and cloudy conditions on Tuesday should dampen pollen entrainment.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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