Pollen Forecast, 29 December 2000

University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Mod

Tulsa

Mod

St. Louis

Mod

Date Issued: 22 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 22  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by converging weather systems.  A low pressure system will move through the are today bringing much higher humidity, warmer temperatures and strong winds to the north ahead of a dropping cold front that should bring precipitation across the area on Wednesday night into Thursday.  Across Texas today high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70 s with low s in the 50 s to the south and east and upper 40 s to the west.  Winds will be from the south to southwest and moderate to strong from west to east. Skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy becoming partly cloudy tonight and tomorrow.  To the north in Oklahoma high temperatures will reach the mid 60 s with lows in the 40 s tonight. In the Ozark Mountains temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees cooler reaching the high 50 s but tonight s lows will be similar.  Partly cloudy to mixed conditions will occur during the day with cloudiness increasing tonight.  Throughout the region very strong winds are forecast.  Oklahoma City is expecting 35 to 45 mile per hour winds during the day.  These will calm during the evening to moderate levels.  On Wednesday,  Warm temperatures will be prominent in the south with high temperatures again reaching the 70 s.  As the cold front moves southward into north Texas rain will develop with most areas forecast with a 50% chance of showers.  The timing will depend upon the movement of the front southward.  Winds will switch from primarily out of the south to coming from the north.  Cloudy skies with increasing chances of rain will predominate throughout the area.                 

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on moderate to strong winds, leaving the area relatively quickly.  Temperatures in the area will warm into the mid 60 s today and upper 50 s tomorrow with lows in the 40 s and mid to low 30 s, respectively.  Mixed sky conditions will become increasingly cloudy tonight and overcast conditions tomorrow.  Winds associated with the regional weather conditions will be from the south and very strong today across Oklahoma.  Trajectory conditions show rising atmospheric conditions from the release site.  Strong characteristics for entrainment and travel are indicated from the southern Oklahoma population.      

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat of travel today *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will be very favorable for pollen release early today with warm temperatures, mixed sun conditions.  But those conditions will deteriorate during the afternoon and into the evening.  Tuesday night into Wednesday temperatures will remain warm but skies will become partly to mostly cloudy in the region and humidity will increase.  Good characteristics occur for significant levels of pollen from the area to reach entrainment and travel putting the downwind areas of Tulsa in the pathway of pollen from the Arbuckle Mountains.  However the strength of the winds today may keep the pollen better entrained and therefore the forecast for the area remains moderate.    Increasing humidity and cloudy conditions on tonight and on Wednesday should dampen pollen entrainment.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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