University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 23  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by the movement of a dry line from west to east and the subsequent movement of a cold front from the Oklahoma/Kansas border into Mexico.  Very warm conditions will prevail across Texas today as high temperatures reach the upper 70 s and low temperatures are in the 50 s ahead of the cold front.  As it pass temperatures will lower into the upper 30 s to low 40 s tonight.  Winds will be moderate to strong from the south/southwest then switching out of the north. However humidity will be high throughout the region and skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy.  Humidity will start to drop as the dry line passes and there is little support for sustained rain, especially on the western side of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north temperatures will also be warm prior to the passing of the cold front, but lows will be in the lower 30 s.  Instability will result in possible thunderstorms to the east over the Ozark Mountain region.  Skies will be cloudy with high humidity and moderate to strong winds will occur across the area from the north.  On Thursday, Cooler conditions associated with the cold front will continue to push southward out of Texas and into northern Mexico.  High temperatures in the Texas region will strive to get to 60 and lows will be in the twenties under clear skies.  To the north 40 s will rule and low temperatures will also be in the mid 20 s.  Moderate to strong winds from the north will continue.                 

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on moderate to strong winds, then the surface winds turn sharply south as the cold front moves across the area towards Texas.  The upper elevational winds continue to climb into the upper mid-west.  Temperatures in the area will be warm with highs in the low 60 s today but colder tomorrow only reaching the mid 40 s.  Cloudy skys and high humidity will clear becoming partly cloudy tonight allowing radiation cooling and low temperatures around freezing.  Tomorrow overcast skies will prevail with a chance of showers in southern and southeastern Oklahoma.  Winds associated with the regional weather conditions will initially be from the south and of moderate strength then switch to the north as the cold front passes over the region.  Trajectory conditions show rising atmospheric conditions from the release site.     

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: ***Mod threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will be unfavorable for pollen release today because of high humidity associated with the passing cold front.  However, warm temperatures and good trajectory characteristics will be present.  Wednesday night into Thursday temperatures will become cold under broken skies but overcast conditions return on Thursday and a chance of showers exist across southern Oklahoma and towards the east.  Trajectory characteristics show pathways at the upper elevations that cross the Tulsa area, but poor release conditions should prevent significant deposition.  The surface winds are turned ahead of the cold front to the northeast of the Arbuckle Mountains.  Indications from the southern populations are that pollination may be winding down and that the skies will soon be free from Juniperus ashei pollen.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page