University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, January 24  TX/OK/AR: The weather across the southern plains will be dominated by the movement of a cold front south across the Edwards Plateau today into northern Mexico.  Very warm conditions yesterday will cool dramatically with high temperatures in the upper 40 s to the west and mid to upper 50 s to the east.  Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20 s to 30 s.  With the passing of the cold front winds will be strong becoming northerly.  Cloudy skies will occur across the area today and tonight. The chance of precipitation is greater than 40% in Dallas, Waco and Austin this morning.  To the west showers, if they occur will be limited to early today with some isolated thunderstorm cells moving across the area.  To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail with a chance of showers along the southern Oklahoma and Texas border.  High temperatures will be in the mid 40 s and lows around freezing for Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Tomorrow the weather will move towards the east and high pressure will begin to move into the area.  Temperatures across the entire region will be in the 50 s with lows in the 30 s.  Mostly sunny to sunny conditions will prevail and a general temperature warming will begin for the weekend.               

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south with the movement of the cold front passing over Texas and into Mexico.  Temperatures in the area today will only reach the low 40 s with the lows around freezing.  In southern Oklahoma a 20% chance of rain showers exists for the area this morning.  Winds will be from the north and moderate to strong.  Tomorrow will bring some clearing and a warming of temperatures as high pressure builds into the area for the weekend.  The trajectory conditions show sinking atmospheric conditions from the release site which translates into poor entrainment and travel characteristics     

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will be unfavorable for pollen release today because of cool temperatures, cloudy skies, the possibility of showers all associated with the passing cold front as it moves south.  The trajectories show characteristics that are not conducive to the entrainment and travel of pollen as well.  In addition, indications from the southern populations are that pollination may be winding down and that the skies will soon be free from Juniperus ashei pollen.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page