University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, January 25  TX/OK/AR: High pressure will build across the southern plains today and tomorrow as the weather from the last couple days slides to the east.  Temperatures will begin to warm with highs expected to be in the upper 50 s across Texas and lower 50 s to the north in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  Clear skies tonight will result in greater radiational cooling therefore lows will be in the mid 30 s in eastern portions of Texas and near freezing to the west and north into Oklahoma and Ozark Mountains.  Flow across the region will switch from the northerly direction of the past couple of days to light to moderate southerly winds.  On Saturday temperatures will warm another 5 to 7 degrees with highs throughout the region in the mid 60 s to the south and lower 60 s north.  Clear sunny skies and light to moderate winds from the south to southwest are expected across the region.         

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move north over northeastern Oklahoma and then across Missouri.  Temperatures in the area today will reach the mid 50 s with the lows around freezing.  Winds will be light to moderate and from the south to southwest today building to stronger levels tomorrow.  Clear skies will dominate both today and tomorrow.  The trajectories show sinking atmospheric conditions from the release site, characteristics that usually translate into poor entrainment and travel conditions.     

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: ***Mod threat of travel today *** Favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Warming conditions, clear sunny skies and lower humidity in southern Oklahoma will result in favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow.  Indications in the Texas populations are that the pollination season is ending.  However, good conditions for release today and tomorrow may find some unopened cones, therefore the potential for moderate levels of pollination exists.  The trajectories show characteristics that are not conducive to the entrainment and travel of significant levels of pollen.  However, if pollen is entrained the trajectory takes it over the Tulsa area on northerly pathway.  Therefore, along with the trajectories from Texas passing over the area the southern Oklahoma population may add to pollen in the atmosphere.  A moderate threat exists for Oklahoma City and Tulsa to have pollen influx into their urban areas. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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