University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Monday, January 28  TX/OK/AR: Warm conditions will continue today and tomorrow and a cold front begins to move south towards the southern plains and a trough of low pressure continues to build towards the west.  Moderate to strong south to southwesterly winds across the region will bring moisture up from the gulf today and tomorrow ahead of weather changes later in the week.  High temperatures across the southern plains will be in the mid to upper 70 s with lows tonight in the upper 50 s and low 60 s.  Skies will become partly cloudy towards the afternoon and mostly cloudy tonight and into tomorrow.  To the north temperatures will be in the upper 60 s in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountain region.  On Tuesday rain will develop ahead of the cold front that is moving in from the north.  Tuesday night and Wednesday it should be stalled across the Red River country.  Cloudy skies and strong winds from the south will be ahead of it with winds switching to the north to northeast once it passes.  Rain is expected to the north with an increasing chance during the day on Tuesday and up to a quarter of an inch across the area Tuesday night.  Precipitation is expected across Texas on Wednesday.     

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move quickly north over northeastern Oklahoma and across mid Missouri before traveling to the east.  Temperatures in the area today will reach the mid 70 s to the south and the upper 60 s to the north.  On Tuesday temperatures will be in the mid 60 s to mid 50 s as cloudy conditions and rain develop across the region.. Low temperatures today will be in the 50 s but return to colder conditions tomorrow night in the upper 30 s.  A significant chance of rain occurs for the area Tuesday afternoon and evening with upwards of a quarter inch expected .  The trajectory shows rising air from the source site in southern Oklahoma that moves quickly out of the region.  These characteristics usually translate into good entrainment and travel conditions.     

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate threat of travel today and tomorrow ***  Favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Very warm temperatures will occur throughout the area today, but skies will become increasingly cloudy and humidity is on the rise as the southerly winds pump gulf moisture into the region. In addition, analysis of the pollen trend from the area indicates that the end of the pollen season is upon us and therefore it is expected that the overall level of pollen in the atmosphere will only reach moderate levels at best.  Yet, there is still a chance of heightened levels in localized areas where the trees grow as some unopened cones may yet yield their pollen.  Therefore the potential for moderate levels of pollination exists, but very high concentrations are unlikely.  The trajectories show characteristics that are conducive to the entrainment and travel of significant levels of pollen, but with overall reduced pollen availability only a moderate threat is forecast for the Tulsa and possibly St. Louis area today, but increasing rain showers tomorrow will dampen any further influx. 

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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