University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, January 29  TX/OK/AR: Warm conditions will continue today with some cooling tomorrow as a cold front continues from the north into Texas from Oklahoma over the next two days.  In addition a strong weather system will begin to move through the area from the west during the forecast period.  Today temperatures across Texas will be warm again with highs in the mid to upper 70 s and lows in the upper 50 s to lower 60 s.  Strong to moderate southerly winds will continue to push humid air in from the Gulf bringing humidity up and overcast/cloudy skies will be present throughout the forecast area.  To the north a significant chance of rain is forecast today with high temperatures only reaching the upper 50 s to low 60 s and lows between the low 40 s and freezing.  This afternoon rain and showers are expected across the region in a band that stretches from southwest Oklahoma to the northeast.  Tomorrow rain will develop across northern Texas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the mid to upper 60 s.  Lows will also be warm and in the 40 s to 50s.  Winds will continue from the south below the cold front stalled in northern Texas and from the north where the front has pushed through.  In Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, high temperatures will drop into the 40s and lower 50s, with lows around freezing.  Significant precipitation should fall around the area with upwards of an inch in some places.  A chance of wintery mix with snow and sleet is possible for Wednesday night    

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move quickly north over northeastern Oklahoma and across upper Missouri before traveling to the east.  Temperatures in the area today will reach the upper 50 s to low 60 s mid 70 s today but humid, cloudy conditions will prevail with the chance of significant rainfall occurring this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow.  The trajectory shows rising air from the source site in southern Oklahoma that moves quickly out of the region.  These characteristics usually translate into good entrainment and travel conditions, however the weather conditions in the area will preclude any significant entrainment and travel.     

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Warm temperatures will occur throughout the area today, but skies will be overcast and cloudy and high humidity readings all combine for a low chance of significant pollen release.  Significant amounts of rainfall are forecast for this afternoon into this evening across the area with levels of ¼ inch possible in many areas.  In addition, the trees are near the end of their pollination cycle therefore adding to the low risk for release.  The trajectory forecasts travel straight into conditions with significant amounts of precipitation predicted therefore any possibility of significant downwind travel and influx of pollen is low as well.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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