University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, January 30  TX/OK/AR: Warm conditions will continue today to the south of a cold front that will sag across the area bringing widespread range of precipitation, thunderstorms, and strong winds.  For example the forecast high temperatures in San Antonio and Austin are in the mid 70 s but to the north the threat of freezing rain will occur throughout Oklahoma and may reach south of the Red River this afternoon and into evening.  Widespread precipitation will occur along a swath from northeast New Mexico towards northeast Oklahoma.  Rainfall amounts may be significant over the next 24 to 36 hours.  As the cold front sags to the south during today and tomorrow a well organized upper level low-pressure system will move across the area.  Ahead of the front, the mix of cold air may bring the chance of thunderstorms with hail as well as strong winds.  As the system moves through and temperatures drop the chance of a wintry mix of precipitation will increase across the area.  The weather system should begin to clear the area by Thursday afternoon with increased chance of clearing.  Clear conditions will begin in the west and move to the east on Thursday.  In northern most Oklahoma a chance of wrap around snows may occur behind the front after it has passed.    

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move quickly north over northeastern Oklahoma and across upper Missouri before traveling to the east.  Temperatures in the area today will be cool as the cold front passes over and moves to the south.  Increasing chance of rain with thunderstorms will reach the area today and bring with it a significant chance of rain and possible freezing rain over the next 24 to 36 hours.  Winds will be strong switching from the southwest to the northwest as the front passes. The trajectory shows rising air from the source site in southern Oklahoma that moves quickly out of the region.  These characteristics usually translate into good entrainment and travel conditions, however the weather conditions in the area will preclude any significant entrainment and travel.     

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cool temperatures coupled with significant weather features in the area will combine for a low chance of significant pollen release.  Significant amounts of rainfall are forecast for this afternoon into this evening across the area.  In addition, the trees are near the end of their pollination cycle therefore adding to the low risk for release.  The trajectory forecasts travel straight into conditions with significant amounts of precipitation predicted therefore any possibility of significant downwind travel and influx of pollen is low as well.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 Return to ForecastingHome Page