University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, January 31  TX/OK/AR: Cool conditions will occur throughout the region today as a significant weather system move to the east away from the area. Across Texas, high temperatures will be in the low to mid 50 s with lows tonight in the 20 s and 30 s.  Rain showers will occur in northern Texas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  These showers will move east this afternoon and evening bringing partly cloudy skies to the region.  On the western side of the Edwards Plateau, cooler temperatures and only partly cloudy skies will prevail today and tonight.  To the north, freezing rain and a wintry mix are forecast for the Oklahoma City and Tulsa areas, respectively.  Conditions will improve this afternoon and into the evening as the weather system moves to the northeast.  High temperatures will be in the upper 30 s with lows in the 20 s.  Tomorrow, high pressure begins to build in from the west.  Skies will clear, and warmer temperatures area forecast. A warm up of 5 to 10 degrees is expected to the north and similar temperature ranges as seen on Thursday are expected across the Texas region.

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move due south and east across Texas.  Temperatures in the area today will be cool with a wintry mix of precipitation forecast for the region.  Freezing rain is forecast for the Oklahoma City area with a wintry mix falling in Tulsa.  Conditions should improve this afternoon and some clearing is expected overnight and tomorrow.   Winds will be moderate to strong from the northwest throughout today then ease off tomorrow. The trajectory shows air travel conditions at the surface from the source site in southern Oklahoma.  These characteristics have not produced good entrainment and travel conditions in the past.    

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat of travel today *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Cool temperatures coupled with significant weather in the area all combine for a low chance of significant pollen release and travel.  Significant amounts of rainfall are forecast for this morning into this afternoon across the area.  In addition, the trees are at the end of their pollination cycle therefore only minor amounts of pollen remain to be released.  ****Because the pollination season for Juniperus ashei is at an end the last forecast will be posted tomorrow on the 1^st of February.  Thank you for your interest in this service and join us again next year.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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