The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

 

 

Date Issued: 02 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 2 TX/OK/AR: A cold front has moved across the area to the east leaving cold air to pull in behind it.  Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler today with winds being moderate to strong from the north to northwest.  Skies will be clear as the cold, dry air moves into the region. In Texas temperatures will only reach the upper 40s in the north and upper 50s to the south with winds from the northwest in the 15 to 20 mile per hour range.  Skies will be sunny and clear today and the humidity will remain low.  Overnight the clear skies and dry conditions will result in low temperatures dropping below freezing with a freeze warning in effect across the Edwards Plateau and Hill country.  Similar conditions will occur tomorrow with a 5 to 7 degree warming and wind strength diminishing.  Winds will eventually turn from the northwest to the southwest during the day.  To the north conditions will be colder with snow on the ground in northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas.  High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s with mostly sunny conditions and brisk winds from the northwest.  Clearing skies and cold temperatures will drop conditions into the low to mid 20s overnight then a gradual warming will occur tomorrow with temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above todays.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move to the southeast towards the Gulf of Mexico, whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau move around the local region.  Each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level.  Conditions at the sources will be cold today but dry with sunny clear skies.  The trees are nearing the peak of the pollen release season therefore some pollen may be released but the cold temperatures should discourage it today but with a greater chance tomorrow.  In addition atmospheric conditions are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today ***mixed conditions for pollen release today.  Clear, sunny skies with dry conditions but cold temperatures coupled with moderate to strong winds across the region result in mixed conditions for pollen release today. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected in sheltered areas where localized temperatures may be greater.  However, overall the cold blustery conditions should restrain significant release.  The trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind.  Across the region the cold air will move the atmosphere along the ground, which usually results in the filtration of entrained particles as they travel.  If some limited pollen release does occur the communities along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau towards the Gulf of Mexico are at heightened risk.  This includes Austin, San Antonio and New Brunfels.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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