The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 02 January 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 2 TX/OK/AR: A cold front has moved across the area to the east leaving cold air to pull in behind it.  Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler today with winds being moderate to strong from the north to northwest.  Skies will be clear as the cold, dry air moves into the region. In Texas temperatures will only reach the upper 40s in the north and upper 50s to the south with winds from the northwest in the 15 to 20 mile per hour range.  Skies will be sunny and clear today and the humidity will remain low.  Overnight the clear skies and dry conditions will result in low temperatures dropping below freezing with a freeze warning in effect across the Edwards Plateau and Hill country.  Similar conditions will occur tomorrow with a 5 to 7 degree warming and wind strength diminishing.  Winds will eventually turn from the northwest to the southwest during the day.  To the north conditions will be colder with snow on the ground in northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas.  High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s with mostly sunny conditions and brisk winds from the northwest.  Clearing skies and cold temperatures will drop conditions into the low to mid 20s overnight then a gradual warming will occur tomorrow with temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above todays..

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south with steady northerly winds.  The trajectory characteristics show cold sinking atmospheric conditions that are poor for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  In addition, conditions at the source site will be cold today with lingering snow on the ground from yesterday and last night.  There is a chance of some lingering snow showers this morning as yesterdays weather system continues to move to the east.  Overnight temperatures will be well below freezing.  Tomorrow conditions will begin to improve but cold conditions will continue across the area.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Cold temperatures, clearing conditions but with a threat of lingering snow showers early today results in unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  In addition the trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel away from the source.  With the lack of pollen to entrain there is a low threat to any downwind communities.  Conditions will begin to improve tomorrow with warming temperatures but continued overall cold conditions. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page